As summer approaches, it's worth examining the seasonal trends in the Greek stock market. Considering Greece's reputation as a top vacation destination, how does this hotspot fare as a market destination during the summer months?
July: A Promising Month
July stands out as a particularly strong month for the Greek stock market. On average, it is the second-best month of the year, with an average gain of 3.14%. Historical data from 1996 shows that July has been positive 16 times compared to 11 negative outcomes. This pattern indicates a favorable environment for investors during July, often making it a key month for market activity.
Contrasting July's strong performance, June and August are typically the weakest months for the Greek stock market. This year is no exception, as June has already shown a decline, aligning with historical trends. Investors should be cautious during these months, as they have historically underperformed.
It's important to remember the significant outlier from the summer of 2015 when the Greek stock market closed for a few weeks due to the financial crisis. Such anomalies can have lasting impacts on market trends and investor confidence.
Strong Starts Lead To Strong Ends
Greek stocks have had an impressive first half of the year, posting a gain of +10%. Historically, this bodes well for the remainder of the year. When the market gains more than 10% in the first half, the average gain for the second half is 10.8%. This trend suggests that strong performance in the first half often sets the stage for a robust back half of the year. For the summer months specifically, if the market starts strong, the average return is 8.6%.
First & Second Half ATHEX Performance Stats
Low Summer Trading Volume
As expected, trading volume on the Athens Exchange tends to be low during the summer months, as many take their holidays. Despite this, the market is setting up for a strong year. So far, the turnover has reached 16 billion euros, which positions this year to potentially be one of the best in the last decade
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